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95th Academy Awards (2023)Gold StandardBy Jeffrey M. Anderson Here is the full list of the 2023 Oscar nominations, with links to the films I've reviewed. I will update this page sporadically through the coming weeks. I make no promises with my predictions. I usually don't score much better than 66%, and with things as crazy as they are, there could be quite a few left turns and surprises. The ceremony will be held on Sunday, March 12, 2023. Update: What a satisfying show! Lots of warm fuzzies and some big laughs. Everything Everywhere All at Once won seven awards, and All Quiet on the Western Front won four, while The Whale won two. Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, Navalny, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, and Women Talking won one each. The short film winners were The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, The Elephant Whisperers, and An Irish Goodbye. The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Triangle of Sadness all came away empty-handed. I did not try to predict two of the short film winners, and so out of 21 categories, I successfully predicted 17 of them, or about 81%. That's a B+. I'll take it. Best Picture Notes: I haven't seen Avatar: The Way of Water, and I hope to avoid it if I can. I detest the original, and I am baffled by how a film that seems to get a "it's OK" reaction can make so much money, as if it were simply hypnotizing people into paying to see it. Triangle of Sadness is just a bad film and shouldn't be here. Elvis is fine, and Top Gun: Maverick is lots of fun. That leaves six really good films, three of which were in my ten-best list, and three of which were in my runner-up (top 20) list. Right now the battle is probably between Everything Everywhere All at Once and Tár. The Golden Globes got it right... they were able to put one in to Comedy and one into Drama and award them both. [Update: Maverick and The Way of Water are the 8th and 9th sequels to ever be nominated for Best Picture.]
If I Had a Vote: Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Director Notes: I'm baffled to see Östlund here, when there were so many other good choices. It's nice to see the Daniels' here. This is Field's first directing nomination, although he has lots of nominations for his screenplays. Same goes for McDonagh. I feel like their movies are more screenplay-rich than directing-rich, though. This is Steven Spielberg's ninth nomination as Best Director, and as far as I'm concerned, he deserves to win it a third time.
If I Had a Vote: Steven Spielberg Best Actor in a Leading Role Notes: This is a hard one. These are all first-time nominees. Mescal is amazing in Aftersun, one of my five favorite movies of the year, but he and Butler are pretty young. Fraser had a welcome comeback in The Whale, which turned out to be a fairly troublesome movie in terms of representation. Nighy and Farrell have both been good for a long time and are finally getting their due, so I'm for either one of them. Farrell seems to be the front-runner at the moment, probably because Banshees doesn't fall apart at the end the way Living does. (Snubs: Daniel Kaluuya in Nope; Adam Sandler in Hustle.)
If I Had a Vote: Colin Farrell Best Actress in a Leading Role Notes: OK, so I had never even heard of To Leslie, and we have four white ladies here while Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis were snubbed. So what's going on? Who knows? The Academy is riddled with weirdness. Of the four I've seen, I adore them all. I feel like it's a dead heat between Yeoh and Blanchett. Blanchett is one of the greatest of all time, and she's superb, but Yeoh is a legend who has her first nomination, and my heart is with her. (This is the first nomination for Riseborough and de Armas, the fifth for Williams, who has never won, and the eighth for Blanchett, who has won twice, for The Aviator and Blue Jasmine). (Snubs: Danielle Deadwyler in Till; Viola Davis in The Woman King; Mia Goth in Pearl)
If I Had a Vote: Michelle Yeoh Best Actor in a Supporting Role Notes: This is another fine group, all with their first nominations, except Hirsch, who was nominated -- get this -- forty-two years ago for Ordinary People. I'd be proud to shake hands with any of them, but Ke Huy Quan? Him I want to smother with a big bear hug. (Snub: Anthony Hopkins in Armageddon Time)
If I Had a Vote: Ke Huy Quan Best Actress in a Supporting Role Notes: And yet another fine group. Love all of these. And there were many more. (Snubs: Janelle Monae in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Keke Palmer in Nope; Elizabeth Olsen in Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness) It was the best year for Supporting Actresses in recent memory. Four of these women are first-time nominees (I'm especially thrilled for Jamie Lee Curtis) and Angela Bassett has her second nomination after What's Love Got to Do with It (1993). (And she looks the same!) It looks as if Kerry Condon is the front-runner, but my heart is with Jamie Lee.
If I Had a Vote: Jamie Lee Curtis Best Animated Feature Film Notes: This was, however, not a great year for animated movies, except Mad God and Apollo 10½: A Space-Age Childhood, both of which were snubbed. (I also liked Lightyear a great deal.) I watched part of Puss In Boots, and determined that, while they borrowed the look of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, there wasn't much to it other than the typical, tired Shrek-ian humor. I liked The Sea Beast but it didn't stick with me. Pinocchio was disappointingly tame, and with such painful songs! Turning Red got better and better the nore I pondered it, and Marcel is adorable. I'd say Pinocchio is arguably the front-runner.
If I Had a Vote: Turning Red Best Adapted Screenplay Notes: It amuses me to see Ehren Kruger, who wrote three Transformers movies and several other things just as bad, with a writing nomination. No matter. As fun as Maverick is, it's no literary masterpiece. That leaves four. Johnson's Glass Onion is terrific, and so is All Quiet on the Western Front, but I don't see those winning. I think it's down to Polley, for brilliant work on Women Talking, and Ishiguro, a Nobel Prize-winning author who turned in a decent screenplay. Either way, the Academy will look good.
If I Had a Vote: Sarah Polley, Women Talking Best Original Screenplay Notes: With 22 Oscar nominations to his name, this is Steven Spielberg's first for writing! Field and McDonagh have both been nominated for writing twice before. I love Everything Everywhere and Fabelmans best, but I personally have to go with Tár on this one, just for the sheer amount of time and research Field put into it, making this world sound authentic, and spinning arguments back and forth on woke and cancel culture. However, I think the Academy will favor McDonagh, given that it's such a "writerly" work.
If I Had a Vote: Todd Field, Tár Best Original Song Notes: This category again. Dianne Warren is here with her fourteenth nomination, for a movie I've never heard of. She has never won. Her songs include "Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now" from Mannequin and "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing" from Armageddon. I honestly didn't even notice any songs in the other movies, except for "Naatu Naatu" in RRR, which is a blast. The Academy is crazy if it doesn't pick that one.
If I Had a Vote: "Naatu Naatu" Best Original Score Notes: I had about a dozen scores I listened to during the year, and, of those, Williams's is the only one to make the cut. Hildur Guðnadóttir's Women Talking at least deserved a shot. I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick All Quiet on the Western Front. More than the others, its dire, thrumming score was powerfully woven into the fabric of its devastating images.
If I Had a Vote: Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front Best Sound Notes: Unless Avatar annoyingly slips in there, this one comes down to a contest between two movies. Top Gun: Maverick was a massive hit and close to a phenomenon. Everybody had to see it, and everyone loved it. All Quiet on the Western Front is more prestigious, and had equally great sound. I guess it really depends on the mood of the Academy.
If I Had a Vote: Top Gun: Maverick Best Costume Design Notes: Pundits have this one down to a dead heat between Elvis and Black Panther. My favorite here is Everything Everywhere.
If I Had a Vote: Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Animated Short Film Notes: Wouldn't it great if a movie called An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake, and I Think I Believe It won? I watched all five of these, and it's my favorite, with Ice Merchants as a close #2. The Boy... is really gorgeous, and I think it may have the best shot at winning.
If I Had a Vote: An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake, and I Think I Believe It Best Live-Action Short Film Notes: I've only seen The Red Suitcase here. I'll have to get back to you. [Update: I saw Le Pupille at the last second and thought it was delightfully quirky, but I still don't have a guess here.]
If I Had a Vote: ? Best Cinematography Notes: Bardo and Empire of Light are show-offy movies that aren't very good and not even nominated elsewhere. Others might disagree, but I don't think Tár's best feature is cinematography. That comes down to the flashy Elvis and All Quiet again. I have a feeling the latter has the edge.
If I Had a Vote: All Quiet on the Western Front Best Documentary Feature Notes: Pundits are giving an equal shot to everything here except A House Made of Splinters. I've seen maybe a little more attention thrown to Navalny, though. so.. [I recently watched Navalny, and found it to be quite provocative... perhaps the most flat-out dangerous documentary since Citizenfour. My listed favorite in this category is still All that Breathes, but I'd be willing to change.]
If I Had a Vote: All That Breathes Best Documentary Short Subject Notes: No clue here as of yet, but I'm going to watch Jay Rosenblatt's How Do You Measure a Year? soon...
If I Had a Vote: ? Best Film Editing Notes: Even though I feel like a great editor could get a film down to under two hours (only one film here reaches that mark), Everything Everywhere is nonetheless a master-class in editing. But if Top Gun wins anything, it'll be this one.
If I Had a Vote: Everything Everywhere All at Once Best International Feature Film Notes: All Quiet is the powerhouse here, with a whole bunch of nominations. [Update: I've seen all five of these now, and I think that All Quiet, EO, and The Quiet Girl are all excellent films, while the other two are decent. Normally this category can be pretty obnoxious, so... good work!]
If I Had a Vote: EO Best Makeup and Hairstyling Notes: Even though making Colin Farrell up to be the Penguin was pretty impressive, I think this one is going to The Whale.
If I Had a Vote: The Batman Best Production Design Notes: Too bad both Everything Everywhere and Tár were booted out of this category. Babylon is just gross, but its excess could appeal to voters. Perhaps more likely is the excess of Elvis, which wasn't quite as gross.
If I Had a Vote: The Fabelmans Best Visual Effects Notes: God help me, but Avatar will probably take this one. Sigh.
If I Had a Vote: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever |
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