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The 89th Academy Awards
Gold Standard: The Oscars 2016By Jeffrey M. Anderson
More notes, comments, predictions, etc., coming soon!
Best Picture: Two of these, Arrival and Moonlight were on my ten-best list, and if I had a vote, I think I'd give the edge to the latter. Next, my favorite is Hell or High Water, followed by La La Land. Then Fences and Manchester by the Sea were both well-written and acted, but don't necessarily demand a second viewing. Hidden Figures and Hacksaw Ridge would be next, both simplistic but effective dramas based on real life. Finally there's the awful Lion at the bottom. [Note: The surprise winner, revealed after La La Land had already been mistakenly announced, will be one of the most memorable Oscar moments in history.]
If I Had a Vote: Moonlight
Lead Actor: Andrew Garfield has his first nomination, and Ryan Gosling, Casey Affleck, and Viggo Mortensen all have their second. Denzel Washington, of course, is a two-time winner, and this is his seventh acting nomination in all. I'm not sure who I like best in this bunch; my own personal picks were different from this list. I guess I'd go with either the veteran (Washington) or the first-timer (Garfield). Affleck is the front-runner at the moment, unless his controversy catches up with him, and then Gosling could snag the trophy.
If I Had a Vote: Denzel Washington
Lead Actress: Ms. Huppert and Ms. Negga have their first nominations, and Ms. Stone has her second. This is Ms. Portman's third nomination and she won for Black Swan. Ms. Streep, of course, is a three-time winner, and this is her 20th nomination overall, making her the most nominated performer in history. As of now, our front-runner is Ms. Stone, hot from Birdman, and expected to ride a wave of La La Land awards.
If I Had a Vote: Ruth Negga
Supporting Actor: Mr. Ali, Mr. Hedges, and Mr. Patel all have their first nominations. Mr. Shannon has his second, and perhaps this one is an apology for snubbing him last year for 99 Homes. The great Jeff Bridges now has 7 nominations, stretching back to 1971, and is a previous winner for Crazy Heart (this one is better). Mr. Ali is the expected, and would be a much-deserved, winner.
If I Had a Vote: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Ms. Harris has her first nomination. Ms. Spencer has her second, and is a previous winner for The Help. Ms. Davis has her third, and Ms. Williams has her fourth. Ms. Kidman also has her fourth, and is a previous winner for The Hours. If I had a vote, I'd probably go with Ms. Harris on the strength of Moonlight, though all these women, and others, were equally great.
If I Had a Vote: Naomie Harris
Best Director: It was an act of generosity to give Mr. Gibson Best Director in 1996, and now his second nomination is an act of redemption; he is forgiven. The other four directors all have their first nominations in this category, although Mr. Villeneuve is a previous nominee for Best Foreign Language Film (for Incendies) and the other three have various writing nominations. Mr. Chazelle looks to be the winner in this category, and -- I think -- would be the youngest in history. But wouldn't it be something, in these troubled times, if Mr. Jenkins won?
If I Had a Vote: Barry Jenkins
Animated Feature: My favorite here is Kubo and the Two Strings, though I'm going to try to check out Zucchini soon. I enjoyed Moana more as a "Disney experience," but Zootopia is cleverer, and with a more timely message, a call for understanding in a time of increasing fear and hate. That message should put it over the top for voters.
If I Had a Vote: Kubo and the Two Strings
Adapted Screenplay: This one is hugely frustrating. I would have chosen Arrival as a favorite, but the Academy weirdly decided that Moonlight was an adapted screenplay, based on a play that was never produced and no one has seen. So now, though I love both movies, Moonlight gets my vote, and -- I think -- it will get the Academy's vote, too. However, it will be awfully difficult to avoid giving the late August Wilson a posthumous honor for Fences. Watch this space.
If I Had a Vote: Moonlight
Original Screenplay: With Moonlight out of the way, and moved to the other category, I can now choose the best script here, Hell or High Water. However, for the voters, Manchester by the Sea has more awards buzz, and weightier themes.
If I Had a Vote: Hell or High Water
Cinematography: This category usually goes to the movie with the biggest, most stunning vistas, and outdoor cinematography is favored over indoor. Since much of Arrival's genius is that it takes place inside a rectangular room, it's probably out. And Moonlight is too small. I love Silence, and it might have been a possibility, if this weren't the only nomination Scorsese's masterpiece received. So that leaves La La Land, adding to its potential sweep.
If I Had a Vote: Moonlight
Best Documentary Feature: What a year for docs! Just in time for Trump's mainstreaming of racism in America, three outstanding docs tackle the topic in broad, intelligent, deep, and profound ways. The epic O.J.: Made in America seems to be the front-runner, but I wouldn't count out Ava Duvernay's 13th -- as a makeup for all the snubs her Selma received -- or Raoul Peck's I Am Not Your Negro. Fire at Sea is also remarkable and Life, Animated is touching, but we can count them out.
If I Had a Vote: O.J.: Made in America
Best Foreign Language Film: This category gives me nothing but trouble, and I have ranted about it at length elsewhere. As usual, three of the films are not even on the radar, and the other two didn't really thrill me much, although my colleagues seem to love them. All I can do is mourn the exclusion of some truly good films, and once again rail at how stupid the rules are for this category. (Note: Toni Erdmann was once the front-runner, but now because of Trump's evil Muslim travel ban, and because director Asghar Farhadi is not allowed to attend the Oscars, his The Salesman could sneak in and win as a small form of protest.)
If I Had a Vote: n/a
Film Editing: This category is sometimes a surprise, as voters are sometimes attracted to movies that seem very tightly snapped together, rather than automatically giving the award to whatever the biggest nominee may be. (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was a surprise winner here a few years back.) That said, all four of the runners-up have a pretty much equal chance at sneaking in and upsetting La La Land. But then, La La Land is pretty nicely done, so...
If I Had a Vote: Moonlight
Sound Editing: The pundits are saying that this one may likely go to Hacksaw Ridge, throwing a single bone to that movie that everyone seems to like, but may not want to totally embrace (it's an honor just to be nominated).
If I Had a Vote: Arrival
Sound Mixing: Some are predicting Hacksaw Ridge here as well, but more are saying La La Land. They're all forgetting about Arrival.
If I Had a Vote: Arrival
Production Design: Though Arrival would get my vote in a heartbeat, for its incredible use of production design, the shapes, the clutter, etc., I think this one will go to La La Land as part of its sweep.
If I Had a Vote: Arrival
Original Score: No doubt on this one: La La Land is a musical, so how could it not win? Arrival was stupidly, unfairly disqualified from this category, so let me just take a second to gripe about that one now. The Jackie score is clearly the year's most unique score, a little controversial, but also extremely fresh. And I love the Moonlight score as well.
If I Had a Vote: Jackie
Original Song: Geez. This category again. And "Try Everything" from Zootopia isn't even here. And what's that Trolls song doing here instead? It might be nice to see Lin-Manuel Miranda win for his excellent Moana song, but, once again, La La Land is a musical and if it can't win here, it probably shouldn't win anywhere.
If I Had a Vote: "How Far I'll Go"
Makeup and Hair: I know nothing about this stuff, but the front-runner seems to be Star Trek Beyond, which I thoroughly enjoyed.
If I Had a Vote: Star Trek Beyond
Costume Design: The pillbox hats could take this, and Jackie could win... or La La Land's beautiful suits and dresses could be part of a sweep.
If I Had a Vote: Allied
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book was one of the year's biggest hits and one of its most overall acclaimed movies, and here is where it will receive an honor.
If I Had a Vote: The Jungle Book
Animated Short: I sometimes check out all the animated shorts prior to Oscar time, but this year I did not get a chance. Pixar's Piper is quite wonderful, though, and could win.
If I Had a Vote: ?
Best Documentary Short Subject: I have not seen any of these. Pundits seem to think that Extremis has the best chance of winning.
If I Had a Vote: ?
Best Live Action Short Film: I sometimes check out all the live action shorts prior to Oscar time, but this year I did not get a chance. Pundits seem to think that Ennemis Interieurs has the best chance of winning.
If I Had a Vote: ? Final Counts:
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